论文部分内容阅读
模型通过对山西省海河流域部分区域的河川径流模拟检验得出如下结论:(1)本模型物理概念明确,结构合理,可适用于本省区内各类下垫面及产汇流条件,并可向其它地区推广应用;(2)可根据降水量预测成果,预测相应年份的河川径流量;(3)在受人类活动影响的流域,可用本模型求得人类活动对河川径流量的影响,并预测未来河川径流的变化趋势;(4)由于本模型的计算时段为一个月,降水强度受到严重均化,从而对模拟成果有所影响。如把主要降水期(7、8月份)的计算时段缩小(如10天),则拟合精度可望进一步提高。
Through the simulation of river runoff in some parts of Haihe River Basin in Shanxi Province, the model draws the following conclusions: (1) The physical concept of this model is clear and reasonable in structure. It can be applied to all kinds of underlying surface and confluence conditions in this province, (2) The runoff of rivers in the corresponding years can be predicted based on the prediction of precipitation; (3) The impact of human activities on the runoff of the rivers can be calculated by this model in the watershed affected by human activities, and the forecast (4) Since the calculation period of this model is one month, the rainfall intensity is severely ameliorated, which will affect the simulation results. If the calculation period of the main precipitation period (July and August) is reduced (for example, 10 days), the fitting accuracy is expected to be further improved.