时间与空间的赛跑

• 作 者: 伍戈 郝大明
• 机 构: 华融证券,
• 出 处: 金融发展评论
• 发表日期: 2016年08期
• 关键词: 债务风险 结构性改革 经济增长 边际效用递减 杠杆率 政府债务 危机时期 人民币汇率 人民币资产 隔夜拆借利率

1.2016年春节后中国经济从市场的极度悲观中超预期逆转,究竟发生了什么?我们能从中学到什么?2.无论横向与主要发达经济体相比,还是纵向与亚洲金融危机时期相比,当前我国总需求政策仍有一定空间,但正在加快收窄。3.随着潜在经济增速下行,我国杠杆率仍在不断攀升,金融债务风险频发,货币刺激经济增长的边际效用递减,结构性改革的时间显得愈发紧迫。

1. What is happening to China’s economy after the Spring Festival holiday in 2016, exceeding the expected reversal from the extreme pessimism in the market? What can we learn from it? 2. Compared with the major developed economies or the vertical, compared with the period of the Asian financial crisis, There is still room for China’s general demand policy, but it is speeding up its narrowing. 3. As the potential economic growth goes down, China’s leverage ratio is still rising. As the financial debt risks are frequent and the marginal utility of monetary stimulus to economic growth declines, the time for structural reform becomes more and more urgent.