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目的研究灰色马尔科夫模型对肺结核发病率预测的应用。方法对新疆1998～2008年肺结核发病率资料建立GM(1,1)模型,再利用马尔科夫链进行修正,对肺结核发病率进行预测。结果灰色马尔科夫模型不仅给出了预测区间及预测中值,还给出了预测值出现的概率,提高了预测准确度,使得预测结果更为可靠。结论灰色马尔科夫模型不仅预测结果更可靠,而且能够对肺结核发病率的发展趋势进行宏观把握,有利于卫生管理部门的决策工作。
Objective To study the application of gray Markov model in predicting the incidence of pulmonary tuberculosis. Methods The GM (1,1) model was established for incidence of pulmonary tuberculosis in Xinjiang from 1998 to 2008, and then modified with Markov chain to predict the incidence of pulmonary tuberculosis. Results The gray Markov model not only gives the prediction interval and the median forecast, but also gives the probability of the predicted value appearing, improves the forecasting accuracy and makes the forecasting result more reliable. Conclusion Gray Markov model not only predicts the results more reliably, but also can grasp the development trend of the incidence of pulmonary tuberculosis, which is in favor of the decision-making work of the health management department.