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在1992年初新的形势下,根据我们模型的测算和实证分析,提出对今年一些主要国民经济指标的预测意见如下: 1.生产按不变价格计算,1992年社会总产值增长率将达到12.3％,国民收入(生产额)增长率将达到9.2％,国民生产总值(GNP)增长率将达到9.1％。五大物质生产部门的总产值增长率将分别达到:农业3.8％;工业14.9％,其中重工业15.4％,轻工业14.4％;建筑业8.5％;运输邮电业7.3％;商业4.5％。 2.投资全社会固定资产投资将达到6150亿元,按现价计算比1991年增加16.5％,按不
Under the new situation in early 1992, according to the calculation and empirical analysis of our model, we put forward some forecast opinions on some major national economic indicators for this year as follows: 1. Production According to constant prices, the growth rate of total social output in 1992 will reach 12.3% , The national income (output) growth rate will reach 9.2%, gross domestic product (GNP) growth rate will reach 9.1%. The growth rates of gross output value of the five material goods production sectors will reach respectively 3.8% for agriculture, 14.9% for industry, including 15.4% for heavy industry, 14.4% for light industry, 8.5% for construction industry, 7.3% for transportation post and telecommunications and 4.5% for commerce. 2. Investment in fixed assets investment in the whole society will reach 6.15 trillion yuan at current prices, an increase of 16.5% over 1991;