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央行对认为我国本轮经济周期已告终结,并将滑向通货紧缩,需要提前实行反周期政策在下半年放松货币信贷的观点并不认同。报告所设立的货币供应量目标和贷款增长目标仍然与年初央行的预期目标相同,并未出现市场部分预期的下半年央行将放宽货币信贷供给的变化。下半年央行仍将保持信贷总量的合理增长;近期利率将保持稳定;在人民币汇率机制的配套改革加快推出的同时,扩大人民币汇率浮动区间,将成为央行的相机选择。
The central bank does not agree with the view that the current round of economic cycle in our country has come to an end and will slide toward deflation and the need to implement a countercyclical policy ahead of schedule to ease monetary credit in the second half of the year. The objective of the money supply target and loan growth target set in the report is still the same as the target set by the central bank at the beginning of the year. There is no change that the central bank will relax the supply of monetary credit in the second half of the market expected. In the second half of the year, the central bank will still maintain a reasonable growth of total credit volume. Interest rates will remain stable in the near term. While supporting the reform of the RMB exchange rate mechanism, the expansion of the floating range of the RMB exchange rate will become a camera choice for the central bank.