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目的探讨影响蚊虫密度的气象因素,为蚊虫密度的预测提供理论依据。方法收集2007年1月至2013年12月杭州、衢州、温州市的气象数据以及蚊虫密度监测数据。采用Pearson相关及逐步多元线性回归模型进行数据分析。结果在杭州市,平均水汽压(P=0.000,95%CI:0.004~0.007)与蚊虫密度显著相关;在衢州市,平均最低气温(P=0.000,95%CI:0.027~0.055)、最大日降雨量(P=0.001,95%CI:0.001~0.005)、极端最低本站气压(P=0.041,95%CI:0.001~0.029)与蚊虫密度显著相关;在温州市,平均本站气压(P=0.012,95%CI:-0.029~-0.004)与蚊虫密度显著相关。杭州地区平均本站气压(P=0.000,95%CI:-0.015~-0.007)、平均气温(P=0.000,95%CI:-0.013~-0.004)对蚊虫密度的影响有滞后性;衢州地区平均本站气压(P=0.000,95%CI:-0.079~-0.034)、日照百分率(P=0.017,95%CI:-0.111~-0.012)、平均水汽压(P=0.017,95%CI:-0.050~-0.005)对蚊虫密度的影响有滞后性。结论平均水汽压、平均本站气压、平均最低气温、最大日降雨量、极端最低本站气压可能是影响蚊虫密度的气象因素。平均本站气压、平均气温、日照百分率以及平均水汽压等对蚊虫密度的影响有滞后性。
Objective To investigate the meteorological factors affecting mosquito density and provide a theoretical basis for the prediction of mosquito density. Methods The meteorological data and mosquito density monitoring data of Hangzhou, Quzhou and Wenzhou from January 2007 to December 2013 were collected. Pearson correlation and stepwise multiple linear regression models were used for data analysis. Results In Hangzhou, mean vapor pressure (P = 0.000,95% CI: 0.004-0.007) was significantly correlated with mosquito density. In Quzhou, the mean minimum temperature (P = 0.000,95% CI: 0.027-0.055) (P = 0.001,95% CI: 0.001-0.005). The extreme minimum pressure (P = 0.041, 95% CI: 0.001-0.029) was significantly correlated with the mosquito density. In Wenzhou, = 0.012, 95% CI: -0.029 ~ -0.004) was significantly related to mosquito density. The mean air pressure (P = 0.000,95% CI: -0.015 ~ -0.007) and mean temperature (P = 0.000,95% CI: -0.013 ~ -0.004) in Hangzhou had a lag effect on mosquito density. Quzhou area The mean barometric pressure (P = 0.000, 95% CI: -0.079 ~ -0.034), sunshine percentage (P = 0.017, 95% CI: -0.111 ~ -0.012), mean vapor pressure (P = 0.017, 95% CI: -0.050 ~ -0.005) on the mosquito density has a lag. Conclusions The mean vapor pressure, the mean pressure of the station, the mean minimum temperature, the maximum daily rainfall and the extreme minimum pressure of the station may be the meteorological factors that affect the mosquito density. The average pressure of the station, the average temperature, the percentage of sunshine and the average vapor pressure on mosquito density lag.