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社会保险是降低居民未来不确定预期,扩大消费的重要手段,是有效发挥扩大内需政策的前提和基础。研究我国社会保险支出与居民消费关系,有助于认识社会保险对城镇居民消费影响的特点,对于如何通过社会保险体系的完善促进城镇居民消费有着重要的意义。实证研究表明,社会保险支出与城镇居民收入、消费存在着长期均衡的协整关系。社会保险支出对消费增长长期看有正向促进作用,但短期内有抑制作用,且社会保险支出影响消费有时滞。
Social insurance is an important means of reducing residents’ uncertain expectations and expanding consumption in the future and is a premise and basis for effectively giving play to the policy of expanding domestic demand. Studying the relationship between social insurance expenditure and household consumption in our country helps to understand the characteristics of the impact of social insurance on the urban residents’ consumption and is of great significance for how to promote the consumption of urban residents through the improvement of the social insurance system. Empirical studies show that there is a long-term and balanced co-integration relationship between social insurance expenditure and urban residents’ income and consumption. Expenditure on social insurance has a positive effect on the growth of consumption in the long run, but it has an inhibitory effect in the short term, and the expenditure on social insurance has some lag in consumer spending.