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长期以来,人们公认天气预报经常是不准确的。目前大多数人们认为,造成这种不准确性的原因,不单纯是由于缺乏最好的预报技能,而可能由于大气某些内在的不可预报性所致。当前对大气可预报性的研究,一般以假定的相对于小振幅扰动的大气不稳定性为基准,以没有任何误差的大气观测的不可能性作为前提。如果大气的几个状态几乎是相同的,以致于没有根据来描述某一种实际存在的大气状态,即使这些状态纵然取决于相同的规律,最终必定在不同的过程中发展,归根结底将不存在从几个有显著差别的状态中选择预报的根据。 大多数可预报性的研究,建大在数值模式的基础上,通常的做法是由“正确的”初始状态和一个或更多个“不正确的”初始状态确定出解,观察这些解的离散速率,依据加倍时间,对小振幅误差结果进行总结。
For a long time, people generally accepted that the weather forecast was often inaccurate. Most people now believe that the reason for this inaccuracy is not simply due to the lack of the best forecasting skills but to some of the inherent unpredictability of the atmosphere. Current research on the predictability of the atmosphere is based on the assumption of atmospheric instabilities relative to small-amplitude perturbations, based on the impossibility of atmospheric observations without any errors. If the states of the atmosphere are almost the same, so that there is no basis to describe a real state of the atmosphere, even if these states, depending on the same rules, will eventually develop in different processes, in the final analysis will not exist from Several significant differences in the state of choice based on the forecast. Most predictability studies, based on numerical models, have generally been to determine the solution from the “correct” initial state and one or more “incorrect” initial states, and to observe the discreteness of these solutions Rate, according to doubling the time, the results of small amplitude error are summarized.