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基于IBIS模型对中国1955～2006年的土壤上层1m的年平均与月平均土壤温度进行模拟,并利用全国气象站点土壤温度观测数据对模拟结果进行验证,结果显示中国南方区的模拟效果优于北方及青藏高原区,春、夏、秋三季模拟效果优于冬季,总体而言取得了较满意的效果。基于模拟结果,利用Mann-Kendall方法对中国1955～2006年年平均和月平均土壤温度进行趋势分析的结果表明,年平均土壤温度,中国北方呈显著上升趋势,南方呈非显著上升趋势,四川盆地、贵州中部、藏东南及天山地区等小部分区域呈现显著或非显著下降趋势;月平均土壤温度,北方基本保持显著上升趋势,南方地区7～9月份总体呈现出下降的趋势,8月份最为显著。
Based on the IBIS model, the annual mean and monthly average soil temperatures of 1m above the soil in China from 1955 to 2006 were simulated, and the simulation results were verified by using the observed data of soil temperature at the national meteorological stations. The results show that the simulation results in southern China are better than those in the north And the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, the spring, summer and autumn are better than the winter in simulation, and the overall effect is satisfactory. Based on the simulation results, the trend analysis of annual average and monthly average soil temperature in China from 1955 to 2006 using Mann-Kendall method shows that annual average soil temperature shows a significant upward trend in northern China and non-significant upward trend in the south of Sichuan Basin , And a small part of areas in central Guizhou, southeastern Tibet and Tianshan areas showed a significant or non-significant downward trend. Monthly average soil temperature kept a marked upward trend in the north, with an overall downward trend from July to September in the south, most notably in August .