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通过编制2012年湖北省社会核算矩阵并以之为基础测算低碳转型措施对经整合的31个行业的产出、增加值、就业和碳排放的总效应,进而计算累计碳减排的产出、增加值和就业牺牲系数(1单位直接碳减排导致的累计碳减排量与累计产出、增加值和就业变动值之比)发现,非金属矿物制品行业、化学产品行业、金属冶炼及压延加工品行业、交通运输仓储和邮政行业、非金属矿和其他矿采选产品行业、石油和天然气开采产品行业等六个行业是湖北省产业结构低碳转型的关键行业。基于社会核算矩阵计算、比较累计碳减排的产出、增加值和就业牺牲系数是在稳增长、促就业约束下进行低碳转型重点产业辨识的一个有效方法,其测算结果具有重要的政策指导意义。
Through calculating the 2012 Hubei Province social accounting matrix and based on it, the total effect of low-carbon transformation measures on the output, value-added, employment and carbon emissions of the 31 industries integrated will be calculated and the cumulative output of carbon emission reduction will be calculated , Added value and employment sacrifice coefficient (the ratio of cumulative carbon emission reductions due to 1 unit direct carbon emission reduction to cumulative output, value added and employment change) found that non-metallic mineral products industry, chemical products industry, metal smelting and Six industries, including calendered products, transportation and warehousing and postal services, non-metallic mines and other mining products, and oil and natural gas exploitation products, are key industries in the low-carbon transition of industrial structure in Hubei Province. Based on the social accounting matrix calculation, comparing the cumulative carbon emission reduction output, added value and employment sacrifice coefficient is an effective way to identify the key industries for low-carbon transformation under the constraints of employment growth with steady growth. The calculation results have important policy guidance significance.