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根据塔里木河干流1957～2008年的年径流量监测数据,利用线性回归法,对干流年径流量时间序列变化趋势进行分析,并借助相关分析和主成分分析法甄别影响径流变化的主要人为驱动因素。结果表明:近50多a来,塔河干流的年径流量呈显著递减趋势,与干流来水量变化趋势一致;人类活动自1975年左右开始明显的影响径流量,有效灌溉面积、农业人口、耕地面积和一产比重与径流变化相关程度最强,以引水灌溉为主体的农业经济活动成为影响径流变化的最重要因素;人类活动对径流变化的影响程度沿河道自上而下表现出逐渐增强的趋势。
According to the monitoring data of annual runoff from 1957 to 2008 in Tarim River, linear regression method was used to analyze the time series change trend of annual runoff, and the correlation analysis and principal component analysis were used to identify the main human-driven factors affecting the runoff change . The results showed that the annual runoff of the mainstream of the Tarim River decreased significantly over the past 50 years and was consistent with that of the mainstream. The human activities started to affect the runoff, effective irrigation area, agricultural population, cultivated land The area and the ratio of production to production had the strongest correlation with the change of runoff. Agricultural economic activities with diversion irrigation as the main body became the most important factor affecting the runoff change. The degree of impact of human activities on runoff changed gradually from top to bottom the trend of.