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为了揭示香港与内地之间的经贸往来对香港物价水平的影响,文章运用非参数面板数据估计法,测算出了2003年7月到2014年10月间若《内地与香港关于建立更紧密经贸关系的安排》(CEPA)未出台的情况下香港月度CPI同比增长率的潜在走势,发现其均值仅为-0.43%。与实际走势对比发现,CEPA总体上提高了香港的通货膨胀率,使月度CPI同比增长率平均提高了1.65%,帮助香港摆脱了通货紧缩困境;而在2008年全球金融危机期间,CEPA反而在一定程度上抑制了香港的实际通胀水平,平均效果为-1.4%,对稳定香港宏观经济环境做出了很大贡献。进一步的实证分析表明,CEPA对香港物价水平的影响与香港从内地的进口总量呈正相关,与内地的通胀水平呈负相关。
In order to reveal the impact of the economic and trade exchanges between Hong Kong and the Mainland on the price level in Hong Kong, the article uses the nonparametric panel data estimation method to calculate the relationship between the Mainland and Hong Kong’s efforts to establish a closer economic and trade relationship between July 2003 and October 2014 (CEPA) has not introduced the case of Hong Kong monthly CPI growth rate of the potential trend and found that the average was only -0.43%. In contrast with the actual trend, CEPA generally raised the inflation rate in Hong Kong, increasing the monthly CPI growth rate by an average of 1.65% on a year-on-year basis, helping Hong Kong get rid of the deflationary dilemma. However, during the global financial crisis in 2008, CEPA was on the contrary To a certain extent, this has dampened the actual level of inflation in Hong Kong with an average effect of -1.4% and contributed greatly to the stability of Hong Kong’s macroeconomic environment. Further empirical analysis shows that the impact of CEPA on the price level in Hong Kong is positively related to the total amount of Hong Kong’s imports from the Mainland and negatively related to the inflation rate in the Mainland.