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依据中国网民和网站数量等主要发展指标,采用格兰杰因果检验对网民增长与网站发展的关系进行了检验,并用Logistic成长曲线模拟了中国互联网发展的生命周期特点,验证了互联网发展过程中网民和网站发展的优先关系。结果表明,网民增长是网站发展的格兰杰原因,但是网站发展不是网民增长的格兰杰原因。中国网站进入成长期的时点比网民滞后,进入成熟期的时点比网民提前,呈现出比较典型的“晚熟早衰”型曲线,网站发展平均滞后于网民增长两年左右,中国互联网发展广度有余而深度不足。
According to the main development indexes such as the number of netizens in China and the number of websites, this paper uses Granger causality test to test the relationship between Internet users growth and website development, and simulates the life cycle characteristics of Internet development in China with Logistic Growth Curve. It verifies that Internet users And website development priorities. The results show that the growth of netizens is the Granger reason for the development of the website, but the development of the website is not the Granger reason for the growth of netizens. Chinese websites entered a period of growth lagging behind netizens, entering the maturity period ahead of netizens, showing a typical “late-maturing premature decline” curve, the average development of websites lagging behind the growth of Internet users for about two years, and the development of China’s Internet More breadth and less depth.