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发达经济体出现持续贸易逆差,发展中经济体出现持续贸易顺差,是当前全球贸易失衡的一个重要特征。本文利用1995~2009年跨国面板数据的计量检验结果揭示了:南北发展的严重不平衡以及由此导致的全球要素非对称性流动,使得全球生产或者说供给能力从发达经济体向发展中经济体转移,但后者消费能力并未因此而得到相应提高,全球消费依然倚重于发达经济体,这是当前全球贸易失衡的本质。因此,解决全球贸易失衡的根本途径,需要发达经济体践行全球“包容性”增长理念,给予包括中国在内的发展中经济体以更多的帮助和扶持,切实缩小南北发展差距。
Sustained trade deficits in developed economies and sustained trade surpluses in developing economies are an important feature of the current global trade imbalance. This paper uses the measurement results of cross-border panel data from 1995 to 2009 to reveal the serious unbalanced development of North-South and the resultant asymmetric flow of global factors, making the global production or supply capability from developed economies to developing economies However, the spending power of the latter has not been raised accordingly. Global consumption still relies on advanced economies, which is the essence of the current global trade imbalance. Therefore, the fundamental solution to the global trade imbalance needs the developed economies to practice the global “inclusive” concept of growth and give more help and support to developing economies including China to effectively narrow the development gap between North and South.