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目的分析中国大陆手足口病动态模式的可能驱动因素,估计该病流行特性的重要参数。方法将宿主分成0~9岁(儿童组)和10~75岁(年长组)年龄组,建立分年龄结构的易感者-感染者-移出者(susceptible-infected-recovered,SIR)模型。根据我国2009-2011年手足口病发病数据,估算两个年龄组的人均接触率(β)和平均感染力(λ),及基本再生数(R0)。对模型进行计算机模拟,分析手足口病传播系统的动态特性以及学校开学对手足口病动态模式的影响。结果我国儿童组和年长组的手足口病年平均感染力分别为0.42,0.11;年人均接触率分别是1.28×10-6,3.31×10-7;基本再生数为8.86。在有外部驱动力(学校开学)的情况下,手足口病的发病数会有一年一次的季节性。结论我国0~9岁儿童手足口病的平均感染力高于目前文献报道的其他儿童传染病的平均感染力;≤9岁儿童间手足口病的接触率高于≥10岁人群间的接触率;每学年的开学能导致手足口病一年一次的季节性。
Objective To analyze the possible driving factors of the dynamic model of HFMD in mainland China and evaluate the important parameters of the epidemiological characteristics of the disease. Methods The patients were divided into age groups of 0-9 years old (children group) and 10-75 years old group (old group) to establish the susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model. According to the incidence data of hand-foot-mouth disease from 2009 to 2011 in our country, the average contact rate (β) and average infection (λ) and the number of basic regeneration (R0) of two age groups were estimated. The model was simulated by computer and analyzed the dynamic characteristics of hand-foot-and-mouth disease transmission system and the effect of school opening on the dynamic mode of foot-mouth disease. Results The annual average infection rates of hand-foot-mouth disease in children group and elderly group in our country were 0.42 and 0.11 respectively. The annual average contact rate was 1.28 × 10-6 and 3.31 × 10-7, respectively. The basic regeneration number was 8.86. In the case of external drivers (school start), the number of hand-foot-mouth disease is seasonally seasonal. Conclusion The average infectivity of hand-foot-mouth disease in children aged 0-9 years in our country is higher than the average infectivity of other children’s infectious diseases reported in the literature. The contact rate of hand-foot-mouth disease among children younger than 9 years old is higher than that of people aged 10 or older ; The start of each school year can lead to annual seasonal HFMD.