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2014年中国第三产业GDP占比首次超越第二产业,被普遍看作是结构调整的一个重要里程碑。然而,如果这个变化的背后隐藏着生产率下降的事实,则把提高第三产业比重作为结构调整目标的政策导向需要被重新审视有研究者认为,由于第三产业的劳动生产率低于第二产业,前者的发展逐渐领先于后者是经济增长减速的原因之一。但笔者认为,总体来说我国产业结构的调整,是朝着有利于提高生产率的方向进行的。同时,加快旨在促进生产要素市场发育的改革,有助于产业结构沿着升级、优化的方向得到调整,可以避免产业结构演变的“逆库兹涅茨化”。
For the first time in 2014, the tertiary industry’s GDP in China exceeded that of the secondary industry, which is generally regarded as an important milestone in structural adjustment. However, if this change is hidden behind the fact that the productivity declines, the policy guidance of raising the proportion of the tertiary industry as the target of structural adjustment needs to be re-examined. According to researchers, as the labor productivity of the tertiary industry is lower than that of the secondary industry, The former is gradually leading the development of the latter as one of the reasons for the slowdown in economic growth. However, in my opinion, the adjustment of China’s industrial structure as a whole is conducted in a direction conducive to raising the productivity. At the same time, accelerating the reform aimed at promoting the market development of the factors of production will help industrial structure to be adjusted in the direction of upgrading and optimization and “counter-Kuznets transformation” to avoid the evolution of industrial structure.