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目的构建居民期望寿命影响因素指标体系并提供一个计算疾控工作对期望寿命提高的贡献率的方法。方法遴选18位专家采用德尔菲法进行2轮问卷调查确定指标体系,应用层次分析法(AHP法)确定各级指标权重及计算贡献率。结果最终确定包含3个一级指标、8个二级指标、27个三级指标在内的期望寿命相关影响因素指标评价体系,在此基础上计算出疾控与卫生工作对于居民期望寿命的贡献率为19.3%。结论应用Delphi法和AHP法构建的期望寿命相关影响因素指标体系及所得贡献率科学、可靠,为Delphi法和AHP法在计算疾控工作的社会贡献率领域做了有益的尝试,也为贡献率的计算提供了综合、可行的方法。
Objective To construct an indicator system of residents’ life expectancy influencing factors and provide a method to calculate the contribution rate of disease control work to the increase of life expectancy. Methods 18 experts were selected to determine the index system by two rounds of questionnaires using the Delphi method. Analytic hierarchy process (AHP) was used to determine the weight of indicators at all levels and to calculate the contribution rate. Results Finally, an indicator evaluation system of life expectancy-related influencing factors including three first-level indicators, eight second-level indicators and 27 third-level indicators was finally determined, and the contribution of CDC and health care to residents’ life expectancy was calculated The rate was 19.3%. Conclusion The index system and the contribution rate of the related life expectancy-related factors constructed by the Delphi method and the AHP method are scientific and reliable. They make useful attempts to calculate the social contribution rate of disease control work by Delphi method and AHP method, and also make contribution rate The calculation provides a comprehensive and feasible method.