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基于I-O理论和RAS法,构建了我国建筑业隐含碳排放的核算模型和预测模型;进而预测了2011~2020年建筑业的隐含碳排放;以到2020年我国单位国内生产总值CO_2排放比2005年下降40%~45%为基本目标,分解了建筑业隐含碳排放的减排目标及关联产业的隐含碳排放减排的责任分担,提出了建筑业隐含碳排放降低的对策和措施。研究结果表明:2015~2020年各产业部门将释放10 537 913万吨的CO_2,其中的2 664 547万吨是建筑业产生的隐含碳排放,占总排放量的25.29%;建筑业98%的隐含碳排放减排责任归属关联产业,其中石油、炼焦、煤气及精制品加工业的隐含碳排放降低的责任之比达到了25.89%,其次是交通运输、仓储和邮政业,占总责任的15.87%,而电力、热力的生产和供应业的贡献位居第三,达到了12.25%。
Based on IO theory and RAS method, the accounting model and forecasting model of implicit carbon emissions in China’s construction industry are constructed, and then the implied carbon emissions of the construction industry are predicted from 2011 to 2020. By 2020, the CO 2 emissions of China’s GDP A decrease of 40% -45% from 2005, and decomposed the emission reduction target of implied carbon emissions in construction industry and the share of implied emission of hidden carbon emissions in related industries, and put forward countermeasures to reduce implied carbon emissions in construction industry And measures. The results show that: from 2015 to 2020, industrial sectors will release 105.7913 million tons of CO_2, of which 26.44707 million tons are implied carbon emissions from construction industry, accounting for 25.29% of total emissions; construction industry is 98% Of which carbonated emissions from petroleum, coking, gas and refined products industries have a responsibility of 25.89%, followed by transportation, storage and postal services, accounting for a total of 15.87% of the responsibility, while the contribution of electricity and heat production and supply industry ranked third, reaching 12.25%.