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本文将剪切强度作为随机变量分析了边坡沿着平面不连续面破坏的概率。通过对两个不连续面的分析,以安全度的联合概率分布为基础,提出了发生多重破坏的概率模型。在初始破坏已经发生的条件下,所得出的边坡沿着另外一个不连续面破坏的条件概率要比将破坏作为相互独立事件所计算出的破坏概率大几个数量级,同时也分析了从一个滑面到下一个滑面时剪切强度的统计参数对破坏概率的影响。并且也强调了在数值计算中力求准确的重要性。
In this paper, the shear strength is taken as a random variable to analyze the probability of slope failure along a plane discontinuity. Based on the analysis of two discontinuities and the joint probabilistic distribution of safety, a probabilistic model of multiple damage was proposed. Under the condition that the initial failure has occurred, the conditional probability of failure of the slope along another discontinuity is several orders of magnitude greater than the probability of destruction, which is calculated as a failure of independent events, and from one The Influence of Statistical Parameters of Shear Strength on Failure Probability When Sliding to Next Slip Surface. It also emphasizes the importance of trying to be accurate in numerical calculations.