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The researches on the assessment of earthquake forecast are reviewed, then the R-value assessment is further developed theoretically in the paper. The results include the arithmetic of the R-values of earthquake occurrence under the condition that “anomaly” occurred or no “anomaly” occurred respectively, and the relation between the values. The distribution of R-value of a forecast method, corresponding to multi-status anomalies being independent each other, is also developed in the paper. The appropriate methods to estimate the R-values and extrapolate the occurrence probability of future earthquakes are also given in the paper.
The researches on the assessment of earthquake forecast are reviewed, then the R-value assessment is further developed theoretically in the paper. The results include the arithmetic of the R-values of earthquake occurrence under the condition that “anomaly ” occurred or no “anomaly ” occurred respectively, and the relation between the values. The distribution of R-value of a forecast method, corresponding to multi-status anomalies being independent each other, is also developed in the paper. The appropriate methods to estimate the R-values and extrapolate the occurrence probability of future earthquakes are also given in the paper.