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基于中国南极磷虾渔业科学观察员收集的数据,本文通过地理加权回归(GWR)模型分析了月份、海底深度和虾群深度对2013—2016年南乔治亚岛冬季南极磷虾渔业单位捕捞努力量渔获量(CPUE)的影响,揭示各驱动因子的时空差异。结果表明:2013—2016年南乔治亚岛南极磷虾渔业CPUE的较大值主要分布于6个旬别,即7月上旬—8月下旬,2014年的平均CPUE值最多,达到20.5±21.1 t·h~(-1),而最小CPUE平均值出现在2015年(10.4±10.5 t·h~(-1)),各月份的平均CPUE存在显著性差异;渔场主要集中在53°00’S—54°30’S,35°15’W—38°30’W;2015年GWR模型拟合优度最高,2016年模型拟合优度最低;自南向北,虾群深度对南极磷虾渔业CPUE的空间效应(正相关性)呈现逐渐增强的趋势,而海底深度对CPUE的空间效应并不一致;GWR模型各年拟合优度均明显高于最小二乘法(OLS)模型中的拟合优度,说明GWR模型能更好地模拟驱动因子对CPUE影响的空间效应。本文结果可为研究南乔治亚岛南极磷虾渔场形成机制和渔业管理提供有效参考。
Based on the data collected by scientific observers of the Chinese Antarctic krill fisheries, this paper analyzed the effects of monthly, depth of seafloor and shrimp swarm on the fishing effort of South Antarctic krill fisheries in the winter of 2013-2016 by using the GWR model. (CPUE), reveal the spatiotemporal difference of each driver. The results showed that the maximum value of CPUE of South East Antarctic krill fishery was mainly distributed in 6 days from 2013 to 2016, that is, from early July to late August, the average CPUE in 2014 was the highest, reaching 20.5 ± 21.1 t · h ~ (-1), while the average value of the minimum CPUE appeared in 2015 (10.4 ± 10.5 t · h ~ (-1)). The average CPUE in each month showed significant difference. The fishery mainly concentrated in 53 ° 00’S-54 ° 30’S, 35 ° 15’W-38 ° 30’W. In 2015, the GWR model has the highest goodness of fit and the lowest goodness of fit in 2016. The spatial effect of shrimp swarm depth on CPUE of Antarctic krill fisheries from south to north (Positive correlation) showed a trend of increasing gradually, but the spatial effect of depth on the sea floor was not consistent with that of CPUE. The goodness of fit of GWR model in each year was significantly higher than that in least-squares (OLS) model, indicating that GWR The model can better simulate the spatial effect of driving factors on CPUE. The results of this paper can provide an effective reference for the research on the formation mechanism and fishery management of South Georgia Island Antarctic krill fishery.