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基于贝克尔家庭经济学和时间配置理论可以证明,劳动剩余条件下的劳动供给并不是无限的。受制于家庭分工的约束,供给曲线呈特殊的阶梯形态:随劳动供给的增加,农业劳动力的保留工资不断提高,且幅度不断扩大。劳动供给对工资的反应是非连续的:只有当工资上升到新的保留工资水平时,劳动供给才会增加;否则,工资上涨并不能带来供给增长。与这种特殊的供给形态相对应,工资上涨的主要动力从农业收入转向工业劳动需求。内蒙、甘肃两省1,500个农户的调查数据证明了上述判断。当劳动需求扩张时,由于工资的微调不能带动供给的微调,劳动力市场将长期难以出清。这提醒我们,当前农民工工资上涨与用工短缺并存现象很可能源于劳动剩余条件下的供给不足,并不必然意味着剩余劳动力枯竭,不能作为刘易斯拐点到来的证据。
Based on Becker's family economics and time allocation theory, it can be proved that labor supply under labor surplus is not unlimited. Subject to the restriction of family division of labor, the supply curve shows a special ladder pattern. With the increase of labor supply, the retained wages of agricultural labor force are continuously increasing, and the magnitude is continuously expanding. The reaction of labor supply to wages is discontinuous: labor supply increases only when wages rise to new retained wages; otherwise, wage increases do not result in supply growth. Corresponding to this special form of supply, the main driving force for rising wages has shifted from agricultural income to industrial labor demand. The survey data from 1,500 peasant households in Inner Mongolia and Gansu proving the above judgment. When labor demand expands, the labor market will be hard to find in the long run due to the fine-tuning of wages that can not be brought about by the fine-tuning of wages. This reminds us that the current coexistence of wage increases and shortage of migrant workers may well be due to insufficient supply under labor surplus, which does not necessarily mean that surplus labor is depleted and can not be used as evidence of the arrival of Lewis's inflection point.