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在水资源规划与管理中,永久与应急防洪方案的经济一体化是一个令人长期困扰的难题。现在提出解决该难题的二段线性规划编制方法并加以论证,该方法为研究制定洪泛区一体化管理规划提供了明确的经济依据。若给定流量或洪水水位的频率分布,利用该方法可以使洪灾损失和防洪费用的期望值最小。应用该方法可以研究各种永久与应急防洪方案,并且可以确定各种防洪方案对减小洪灾损失的相互作用的影响。最后用一个假设的例子对该方法进行了论证和讨论,同时亦讨论了该方法在预测不确定性和凹性叠加损失函数时的限制条件。
In the planning and management of water resources, the economic integration of permanent and emergency flood prevention programs is a long-standing problem. At present, a method of compiling two-stage linear programming to solve this problem is put forward and demonstrated. This method provides a clear economic basis for studying and formulating integrated floodplain management planning. Given the frequency distribution of flow or flood level, this approach minimizes the expected value of flood damage and flood control costs. The application of this method allows for the study of various permanent and emergency flood plans and of the impact of various flood plans on reducing the interaction of flood losses. Finally, a hypothetical example is used to demonstrate and discuss this method. The limitations of this method in predicting the uncertainty and concavity loss function are also discussed.