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背景与目的肺癌发病率和死亡率在男性和女性人群持续上升,但是有关肺癌所致的潜在减寿年和去肺癌死因可增加期望寿命时间变化趋势的研究较少。本研究旨在探究江苏省昆山市1981年-2015年去肺癌死因可增加期望寿命和肺癌所致的潜在减寿年时间趋势。方法 1981年-2015年肺癌死亡病例来源于死因监测,以计算去肺癌死因可增加期望寿命和潜在减寿年。用中国2000年第五次人口普查的年龄结构计算分性别的年龄标化潜在减寿年。使用年度变化百分比(estimate annual percentage change,e APC)评价去肺癌可增加期望寿命和潜在减寿年在年份之间变化趋势。结果总人群中去肺癌死因可增加期望寿命由1981年的0.34岁上升到2015年的0.86岁,上升趋势有统计学意义(APC=3.2%,95%CI:2.8%-3.6%);男性人群(APC=3.0%,95%CI:2.5%-3.5%)和女性人群中(APC=3.6%,95%CI:3.0%-4.2%)去肺癌死因可增加期望寿命也呈现上升趋势。肺癌所致的标化潜在减寿年在总人群(APC=-0.1%,95%CI:-0.6%-0.4%)和男性人群(APC=-0.5%,95%CI:-1.1%~0.1%)无明显趋势变化,而女性人群中明显上升(APC=1.5%,95%CI:0.3%-2.7%)。结论虽然因肺癌所致的过早死亡没有趋势变化,而肺癌死因对全人群期望寿命的影响在持续上升,有针对性的肺癌预防控制措施亟需开展。
Background and Objective Lung cancer morbidity and mortality are continuously rising in both males and females, but there are few studies on the potential life-years of lung cancer and the cause of death to lung cancer to increase trends in life expectancy. The purpose of this study was to explore the trend of the potential life-saving years of life expectancy and lung cancer in Kunshan City, Jiangsu Province from 1981 to 2015. Methods Between 1981 and 2015, deaths from lung cancer were derived from the cause of death monitoring to calculate the cause of death from lung cancer to increase life expectancy and potential years of life lost. Calculate the age-specific potential life-years for each sex by using the age structure of the fifth census of China in 2000. Using estimates of annual percentage change (e APC) to assess lung cancer can increase life expectancy and trends in years of potential life-years lost. Results The life expectancy of lung cancer patients in the total population increased from 0.34 years old in 1981 to 0.86 years old in 2015. The upward trend was statistically significant (APC = 3.2%, 95% CI: 2.8% -3.6%). The male population (APC = 3.0%, 95% CI: 2.5% -3.5%) and the female population (APC = 3.6%, 95% CI: 3.0% -4.2%) have increased life expectancy due to death from lung cancer. The potential life-years of standardization for lung cancer were higher in the general population (APC -0.1%, 95% CI -0.6% -0.4%) and the male population (APC -0.5%, 95% CI -1.1% -0.1 %) Showed no significant trend change, while the female population was significantly increased (APC = 1.5%, 95% CI: 0.3% -2.7%). Conclusions Although premature death from lung cancer has no trend change, and the impact of death causes of lung cancer on the life expectancy of the whole population continues to rise, targeted prevention and control measures for lung cancer are urgently needed.