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煤层气井水力压裂效果受煤层条件、煤层气井条件、压裂施工参数等影响,压裂效果难以预测.通过对煤层气井压裂后累积增产量分析,从中确定出煤层厚度、煤层深度、煤层渗透率等26个影响煤层气井压裂效果的因素.运用灰色关联法筛选主要因素和次主要因素,并分别建立不同的隶属函数用于专家系统的知识库建立,形成一种灰色理论结合专家系统的煤层气井压裂效果预测方法.将方法运用与鄂尔多斯某区块,对200组测试数据进行计算,预测错误率仅为3.5%.计算结果表明,方法预测结果准确可靠,可为煤层气井压裂优化提供指导.
The effect of hydraulic fracturing in coalbed methane wells is difficult to predict due to the influence of coal seam conditions, coalbed methane conditions and fracturing construction parameters.Based on the analysis of cumulative increase of production after fracturing of coalbed methane wells, the coal seam thickness, coal seam depth, Rate of 26 factors that affect the fracturing effect of coalbed methane wells.The main factors and sub-main factors were screened by gray relational method and different membership functions were established for the knowledge base of expert system to form a gray theory combined with expert system Prediction method of coalbed methane well fracturing effectThe method is applied to a block of Ordos to calculate 200 sets of test data and the prediction error rate is only 3.5% .The calculation results show that the prediction method is accurate and reliable, which can be used to optimize the fracturing of coalbed methane wells Provide guidance.