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近年来美国经济波动对中国出口的影响越来越明显,本文利用1997年1月至2008年4月的中美两国月度宏观数据对这种影响进行了实证分析,结果发现,美国经济波动对中国对美出口和总出口都有高度显著的前导性正向影响,这种影响在中国加入WTO以后有了大幅度的提高;同时,美国经济波动通过溢出效应对中国总出口产生的整体影响幅度要超过它对中国对美出口的直接影响。
In recent years, the impact of economic fluctuations in the United States on China’s exports has become more and more obvious. This paper uses the monthly macroeconomic data of China and the United States from January 1997 to April 2008 to make an empirical analysis of this impact. The results show that the U.S. economy is volatile China’s exports to the United States and the total exports have a highly significant positive and positive impact. This effect has been greatly enhanced after China’s accession to the WTO. At the same time, the overall impact of the fluctuations of the U.S. economy on China’s total exports through the spillover effect Exceed its direct impact on China’s exports to the United States.