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引言 文献1从理论上提出了地震活动分区、分带、分段的三项定量指标,文献2—4对大华北作了初步应用。其中文献2,较详细地分析了大华北地震活动阶段性相对同步活动特征及其中长期预报意义,据此给出了强度危险概率P(S)和时间危险概率P(T)两种概率模型,计算出“近期一两年内,大华北地区新的地震活动幕可能到来的危险概率:P(T)=0.8,P(S)=0.5”。从1985年以来大华北地震活动的实况来看,仅内蒙、河北、黄海发生
Introduction Literature 1 theoretically proposed three quantitative indices of seismic activity zoning, zoning, and subdivision. References 2-4 have made preliminary application to North China. Literature 2 of this paper analyzes in more detail the characteristics of the phase-relative synchronous activities of seismic activity in North China and the significance of medium- and long-term forecasting. Based on this, two probabilistic models of intensity risk probability P (S) and time hazard probability P (T) Calculated “the probability of a new seismic activity curtain coming in the North China in recent one or two years: P (T) = 0.8, P (S) = 0.5”. From the actual situation of the earthquake activity in North China since 1985, only Inner Mongolia, Hebei and Yellow Sea occur