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近几年来,我们曾经研究了根据地震频度衰减预报地震的方法。这一方法的基本概念是这样的:假定有一地震序列,我们也已经有了这个系列的资料(包括各次地震的时间、震级及震中位置)。问题是现在的地震系列是前震系列还是主震、余震系列呢?如果是前震系列,我们便预报今后还有主震发生,有的情况下还可以大略估算出主震的震级;如果地震系列经判断是主震-余震系列,则可以计算最大余震震级,供预报时参考。
In recent years, we have studied methods of predicting earthquakes based on the frequency of earthquakes. The basic concept of this approach is this: Assuming there is a seismic sequence, we also have this series of data (including the time, magnitude and epicenter of each earthquake). The question is whether the current earthquake series is the foreshock series or the main shock or aftershock series? If the foreshock series, we predict that there will be mainshock occurrences in the future, and in some cases, we can roughly estimate the magnitude of the main shocks. If the earthquake series Judgment is the main shock - aftershock series, you can calculate the magnitude of the largest aftershock for forecasting reference.