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自1982年夏开始,大藏、通产两省关于日本经济今后的中期潜在增长率到底能达到什么程度的问题,展开了热烈的争论。著名经济学家如金森久雄、森口亲司、藤野正三郎等人相继发表了他们预测的潜在增长率(分别为5%、3.8—4.2%、3.6%)。引人注目的是代表官方的大藏、通产两省,各自根据自己的理论对潜在增长率提出了不同的预测数据。大藏省是3.2%(1982—1985年);通产省是5%(1982—1990年)。对潜在增长率产生这些不同看法的主要原因是什么?所谓潜在增长率,是指在
Since the summer of 1982, there have been heated debates over the extent to which the potential of the medium-term potential growth rate of the Japanese economy in the future will be raised by the two provinces of Dakar and Tongchu provinces. Well-known economists such as Kimitsu Kusao, Morimoto Morimoto, Masahiro Fujino and others have published their potential growth rates (5%, 3.8-4.2%, 3.6% respectively). What attracts people’s attention is that on behalf of the government, the two major provinces of Tibet and the governorate, each put forward different forecasting data on the potential growth rate based on their own theories. The largest province is 3.2% (1982-1985) and the MITI is 5% (1982-1990). What are the main reasons for these different views on the potential growth rate? The so-called potential growth rate refers to the