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中国城市化的速度在突飞猛进。撤县改市、撤地改市的活动层出不穷。这是值得厌贺的大好事。与此同时,我们也应该看到,有城市就有城市病。在诸多城市病中,最棘手的要数城市犯罪了。大家都说“民以食为天”,其实,还应当看到在任何时候,民都是以“安”为“地”。安全是安身立命之地,安全感是头号心理卫生。尤其是在温饱问题解决之后,民便从以食为天,转化为以“安”为“天”了。为了增强人们的安全感,就必须对安全感的对立面——犯罪有个清醒的估计、准确的预测,以便于采取相应对策。这里的“估计”、“预测”,不应当是大而化之,不应当是信口开河的。我们应当努力找到决定犯罪率的主要参数,找到各参数之间的线性关系、函数关系。
The pace of urbanization in China is growing by leaps and bounds. To change the county to withdraw from the city, the withdrawal of land-based activities to the city after another. This is a good thing worthy of nostalgia. At the same time, we should also see that cities have urban diseases. In many urban diseases, the trickiest counties have committed crimes. Everyone says that people want anything for nothing. In fact, we should also see that at any time, people are “safe” for “earth.” Security is the place to live your life, security is number one mental health. Especially after the issue of adequate food and clothing has been solved, the people have transformed themselves from eating food to using “safe” food as their “heaven.” In order to enhance people’s sense of security, we must have a clear sense of security - a clear estimate of crime, accurate prediction, in order to take appropriate measures. The “estimation” and “prediction” here should not be large and should not be excused. We should strive to find the main parameters that determine the crime rate and find the linear relationship and the function relationship between the various parameters.