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我国是鸡蛋生产与消费大国,鸡蛋与饲料比价变化对蛋鸡养殖户经营活动有很大影响。因此,研究分析蛋料比价具有重要的现实意义。本文基于VAR模型建立协整方程,并运用Johansen协整检验、脉冲响应函数、方差分解方法找出蛋鸡养殖成本主要影响因素,并估算蛋鸡养殖盈亏平衡点。综合得出蛋料比价受自身前期价格影响最大;方差分解蛋料比价、豆粕、玉米和蛋鸡配比饲料所贡献依次减小,分别为73%、19%、7%、1%,蛋料比价至少需要4个月恢复平稳;结合2017年玉米、豆粕价格持续走低并参照构建盈亏平衡曲线预测2017年三、四季度鸡蛋价格将上涨,且蛋鸡养殖户实现盈利。
China is a big country for egg production and consumption. The changes of the ratio of egg and feed have great influence on the operating activities of the hens. Therefore, it is of great practical significance to study and analyze the ratio of eggs. In this paper, the cointegration equation is established based on the VAR model, and Johansen cointegration test, impulse response function and variance decomposition method are used to find out the main influencing factors of laying hen’s cost and to estimate the breakeven point of laying hen. The results showed that the ratio of the price of eggs was the most affected by the price of the previous period. The variance of the ratio of the raw materials, soybean meal, corn and laying hens decreased as follows: 73%, 19%, 7%, 1% The price comparison will take at least 4 months to stabilize. Combined with 2017 corn, soybean meal prices continue to decline and the breakeven curve is constructed. It is estimated that in the third and fourth quarters of 2017, the price of eggs will rise and the hens growers will be profitable.