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苏联是一个多地震的国家,也是开展地震预报探索研究较早的国家之一。近20年来取得了一些明显的进展,并已在本国的地震学领域中占有一定的地位。苏联对地震预测预报的探索工作可归纳为二十年代、五十年代、六十年代至今的三个阶段,每个阶段都把测震学和地震前兆的观测作为重要内容。从第二阶段探索工作起,苏联便采取了实验场的方式,在中亚塔吉克共和国的加尔姆地区建立了第一个实验场,并开展了较大规模的综合观测。特别是近年来固体物理(首先是断裂物理和力学)取得的成就以及电子技术在地球物理实验中的应用,为地震预报研究奠定了基础。本文仅根据所收集到的资料,对苏联地震活动区域分布和地震预报的历史,苏联地震预报体系与实验场,特别是中亚地区的实验场情况,以及地震预报研究实验场的主要成果和经验以及预报实例等方面,进行了概述。
The Soviet Union is a country with many earthquakes and one of the earliest countries that conducted exploration and research on earthquake prediction. Some remarkable progress has been made in the past 20 years and it has occupied a certain position in the field of seismology in our country. The exploration work of the Soviet Union on earthquake prediction and prediction can be summarized into three stages from the 1920s, the 1950s and the 1960s to the present day, with the observation of seismology and earthquake precursors at each stage as an important part. Since the second phase of exploration, the Soviet Union has taken the experimental field approach by establishing the first experimental field in the Garm area of the Central Asian Republic of Tajikistan and carrying out large-scale comprehensive observation. In particular, the achievements made in solid state physics (fracture mechanics and mechanics in the first place) and the application of electronic technology in geophysical experiments in recent years have laid the foundation for earthquake prediction research. Based on the collected data, this article mainly analyzes the regional distribution of seismic activity in the Soviet Union and the history of earthquake prediction, the experimental system of the Soviet Earthquake Prediction System and the experimental field, especially the experimental field in Central Asia, and the major achievements and experiences of the earthquake prediction experimental field As well as the forecasted examples.