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我国股市经历了96年和97年上半年的大牛市,已经达到了新一轮循环周期的高点:沪综指1500点,深成指6100点。该点位的平均市盈率已超过50,进入了市盈率40以上的高风险区,理应回落调整。笔者预计今年股市的总趋势,仍将沿着去年下半年以来的调整趋势,进行箱形整理,沪市在1050点至1350点,深市在3600点至4800点箱体内震荡,上半年会反复下探寻求支撑,下半年才有可能反弹至箱顶。今年以来,我国股市进一退二,阴跌绵绵,已呈现十个方面的弱势特征:
China’s stock market experienced a bull market in 1996 and the first half of 1997, having reached the new round of high cycle: 1,500 points for Shanghai Composite Index and 6,100 points for Shenzhen Component Index. The average price-earnings ratio of the point has more than 50 into the high-risk area of more than 40, should be adjusted down. I predict that the general trend of the stock market this year will continue to follow the adjustment trend from the second half of last year to the box shape. The Shanghai stock market will fluctuate within the range of 1050 to 1350 and the Shenzhen stock market will fluctuate from 3600 to 4800, Desperate search for support, the second half is likely to rebound to the top of the box. Since the beginning of this year, the stock market in our country has been further retreated. The negative trend has shown a ten-fold weakness: