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利用工业部门分行业能源消费的面板协整模型,实证分析了各行业能源消费与行业增长的作用机制,并通过设定不同的增长速度、效率水平及行业结构发展方向,对“十一五”期间能源消费量进行了短期预测。结果表明,我国工业各主要行业的能源消费、行业增长和能源效率指标间存在长期均衡,且具有显著的短期调整效应,如果现行的能源政策和产业结构不发生大的调整,能源效率没有大幅提高,“十一五”期间工业能源强度将出现小幅下降,但距政府的节能目标仍有较大差距,节能前景不容乐观。
By using the panel co-integration model of industrial energy consumption by industry, this paper empirically analyzes the mechanism of energy consumption and industry growth in various industries. By setting different growth rates, efficiency levels and the direction of industrial structure development, "During the short-term energy consumption forecast. The results show that there is a long-term equilibrium between energy consumption, industry growth and energy efficiency indicators in all major industrial sectors of our country and a significant short-term adjustment effect. If there is no major adjustment in the current energy policy and industrial structure, the energy efficiency will not increase significantly During the 11th Five-Year Plan period, the intensity of industrial energy will decline slightly, but there is still a long way to go before the government can save energy. The energy saving outlook is not optimistic.