重轨行业上市公司受益度排序

• 作 者: 周德昕
• 机 构: 新疆证券,
• 出 处: 证券导刊
• 发表日期: 2006年03期
• 关键词: 重轨 行业上市公司 钢材消费 铁路建设 包钢 盈利预测 周期风险 产品结构 铁路建设项目 铁路投资

预计2006年铁路用钢材消费量增幅在426万吨,增幅为8%。按三家公司的产品结构、重轨的盈利贡献、潜在扩张能力看,受益于铁路建设规模提速的从大到小排列是:新钢钒、包钢、鞍钢。重轨价格的稳定、产能扩张有助于新钢钒、包钢抵抗行业周期风险,但从我们的盈利预测来看,所起的作用毕竟不能避免2006年业绩相对于2005年的大幅下滑,因此不足以改变我们的短期评级。

It is estimated that the steel consumption in railway will increase by 4.26 million tons in 2006, an increase of 8%. According to the product mix of the three companies, the profit contribution of the heavy rail and the potential expansion capacity, the descending order of speed-up benefited from the railway construction scale is as follows: Vanadium Steel, Baotou Steel and Anshan Steel. The stability of heavy rail prices and the expansion of production capacity will help Sinosure and Baotou Steel to resist the cyclical risks in the industry. However, from our profit forecast, the effect of 2006 is not able to avoid a substantial decline in 2006 performance from 2005, therefore Not enough to change our short-term rating.