中国经济接近增长极限

• 作 者: 尚鸣
• 出 处: 中国投资
• 发表日期: 2005年08期
• 关键词: 极限 人口增长 《增长的极限》 消耗率 星球 农业生产 罗马俱乐部 经济增长 粗放型经济增长 工业生产

30年前,国际著名的思想库罗马俱乐部发表了一份面向公众的报告《增长的极限》。分析了人口增长、农业生产、资源消耗、工业生产和污染等影响经济社会发展的5个因素,认为当时西方发达国家普遍陶醉其间的“高增长、高消费”模式已经逼近我们这个星球资源和环境所能承载的极限,预言如果维持现有的人口增长和资源消耗率不变,全球经济将在2100年前达到增长极限,随后步入衰退。

Thirty years ago, the internationally renowned think-tank Rome Club published a report entitled “The Limits to Growth.” The five factors that affect economic and social development such as population growth, agricultural production, resource consumption, industrial production and pollution are analyzed. At that time, the pattern of “high growth and high consumption” universally remembered by the developed countries in the West at that time has approached the resources and environment of our planet The limits that it can carry are foreshadowed that if the current population growth and resource consumption rate remain unchanged, the global economy will reach its growth limit by 2100 and then decline.