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未来十年就是到2015年以前。说到未来十年中国经济增长的制约因素,首先应该对到2015年以前中国经济增长的阶段有一个判断。德国著名学者霍夫曼曾经提出过一个著名理论,即重工业一旦在全部工业产出中的比重达到一半就进入了工业化中期阶段,而达到三分之二以上,一个国家的工业化就算是基本完成了,用重工业与轻工业的比率关系看,一半就是1,三分之二就是2,这就是著名的“霍夫曼系数”。上世纪70年代中期的日本,“霍夫曼系数”已经达到3,80年代中期的“亚洲四小龙”都达到2,都是基本上完成工业化的标志。中国在改革开发前由于特殊的发展战略也曾达到3,但不是正常的工业化道路,改革以来进行了很大调整,80年代出现了轻工业的超前增长,重工业比重虽之下降,但是到90年代以来,重工业的比重又开始上升,目前的“霍夫曼系数”约为1.25,所以可以说
The next ten years is until 2015. Speaking of the constraints on China’s economic growth in the next decade, we should first of all have a judgment on the stage of China’s economic growth by 2015. Hoffman, a famous German scholar, once put forward the famous theory that once the heavy industry reaches half of the total industrial output and reaches over two thirds of the industrialization stage, even if the industrialization of a country is basically completed In terms of the ratio of heavy industry to light industry, one half is one and two thirds is two. This is the famous “Huffman Coefficient.” In Japan in the mid-1970s, the “Huffman Coefficient” has reached 3. By the mid-1980s, “four small dragons in Asia” reached 2, all of which marked the completion of industrialization. Before the reform and opening up, China also achieved a special development strategy of 3, but it was not a normal industrialization path. Since the reform, great adjustments have been made. In the 1980s, light industry was ahead of growth while the proportion of heavy industry was declining. However, since the 1990s , The proportion of heavy industry began to rise again, and the current “Huffman Coefficient” is about 1.25, so it can be said