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基于1992~2012年的数据,在STIRPAT模型基础上,分解出二氧化碳排放量、技术进步、人口规模和人均财富等因素,对各个变量进行平稳性检验、AR根检验、向量自回归检验和方差分解等。研究表明:所选变量具有很好的平稳性。碳排放量受自身滞后一阶显著正影响,滞后二阶影响不显著;受技术进步滞后一阶显著负影响,滞后二阶影响不显著;受人口规模和人均财富的影响不显著。技术进步受自身、碳排放量、人口规模和人均财富的影响均不显著。人均财富对于碳排放量的贡献率水平最高,技术进步其次,人口规模最小。据此提出了政策建议。
Based on the data from 1992 to 2012, the factors of carbon dioxide emissions, technological progress, population size and per capita wealth were decomposed on the basis of STIRPAT model. The stationary test, AR root test, vector autoregressive test and variance decomposition Wait. The research shows that the selected variables have good stability. Carbon emissions were significantly affected by the first-order of their own lag, and the second-order laggedness was insignificant. They were significantly negatively affected by the first-order lag of technological progress, and the second-order laggedness was insignificant. The impact of population size and per capita wealth was insignificant. Technological progress is not significantly affected by itself, carbon emissions, population size and per capita wealth. Per capita wealth has the highest level of contribution to carbon emissions, followed by technological progress and the smallest population. Accordingly, the policy recommendations are put forward.