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对2015年中亚五国经济金融运行情况进行分析,可以得到如下结论:2015年,中亚五国经济面临的最大挑战是外部冲击的严重影响,大宗商品价格持续大幅下跌,俄罗斯经济衰退对中亚地区产生的溢出效应以及中国经济增速放缓导致的需求下降,综合因素导致中亚地区的经济增速下降至2008年世界金融危机以来的最低点,中亚国家普遍出现国际收支和财政收入情况恶化。为应对危机,中亚国家政府普遍采取扩张性的财政政策及主动性的货币贬值等措施,一定程度上缓解了外部冲击的影响,但是随着而来的是,整区域性的通货膨胀和金融部门系统性风险有所增加。同时世界经济前景不确定性以及中亚国家自身所存在的体制、社会等问题,恐怖势力在中亚地区的再度抬头,使得中亚五国未来的经济发展仍然存在较多不确定性,需要进一步密切关注。
An analysis of the economic and financial operations in the five Central Asian countries in 2015 shows that the biggest challenge to the economies of the five Central Asian countries in 2015 is the serious impact of external shocks. The prices of bulk commodities have continued to plunge. The economic recession in Russia The spillover effects in the sub-region and the decline in demand caused by the slowdown in China’s economic growth led to the fact that the economic growth rate in Central Asia dropped to the lowest level since the world financial crisis in 2008, and that the balance of payments and the fiscal Deteriorating income. In response to the crisis, Central Asian governments generally adopted measures such as expansionary fiscal policies and proactive currency devaluation to some extent alleviate the impact of external shocks. However, with the advent of regional inflation and finance Systematic systemic risks have increased. At the same time, the uncertainty of the world economy and the institutional and social problems existing in the Central Asian countries themselves raise the terrorist forces in Central Asia and make the economic development of the five Central Asian countries still more uncertain and require further Closely.