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[目的]早期识别和探查传染病暴发流行,提高突发公共卫生事件应对能力。[方法]以痢疾、甲肝为例,利用2001~2005年历史数据,对传染病历史平均发病水平予以定量化,采用移动平均法建立不同百分位上预警值以及预警控制图,确定合理预警基线值。[结果]计算传染病在P25,P50,P75不同百分位数上的预警值,根据疾病发病分布特点,以“第75百分位数”作为预警基线值,以“第90百分位数”作为预警控制线。[结论]采用移动平均法可以较好表达传染病在不同百分位上的预警界值,合理预警基线值确定为P75。
[Objective] To identify and probe the outbreak of infectious diseases in the early stage and improve the coping ability of public health emergencies. [Methods] With dysentery and hepatitis A as examples, the average historical incidence of infectious diseases was quantified by using historical data from 2001 to 2005. A moving average method was used to establish early warning values and warning control charts at different percentiles to determine a reasonable early warning baseline value. [Results] The warning values of infectious diseases on different percentiles of P25, P50 and P75 were calculated. According to the distribution of disease incidence, the “75th percentile” was taken as the baseline value of early warning, Quantiles "as a warning control line. [Conclusion] The moving average method can well express the precautionary cutoff value of infectious diseases on different percentiles. The reasonable early warning baseline value is determined as P75.