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洪水过程非参数随机模拟是一个崭新的课题,现首次就这课题作了一些探讨。首先介绍非参数最近邻自展模型原理并进行改进,提出了非参数扰动最近邻自展模型(简记PNNB),然后将PNNB模型应用于洪水随机模拟。通过单站洪水和多站洪水序列模拟研究表明,该模型概念清晰,结构简单,模拟洪水过程是可行的。该尝试为洪水过程随机模拟提供了一种非参数途径。
The non-parametric stochastic simulation of flood process is a brand new subject, and for the first time, some discussions have been made on this subject. Firstly, the principle of nonparametric nearest neighbor self-spreading model is introduced and improved. A nonparametric perturbation nearest neighbor self-spreading model (abbreviated PNNB) is proposed. Then PNNB model is applied to stochastic simulation of flood. The simulation of single-station flood and multi-station flood sequence shows that the model is clear in concept, simple in structure and feasible to simulate the flood process. This attempt provides a non-parametric approach to stochastic simulation of flood processes.