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本文提出用最大熵原理(Maximum Entropy Principle,以下简称为MEP),建立地震危险性分析中所用的重现关系,能使地质资料、历史记载和仪器记录都汇合在这个重现关系中。用最大熵原理可以得到偏差最小的重现关系。本文指出了传统的最小二乘法(简称为I.S法)与MEP法本质的区别,并以数例说明。本文还提出一个修正的最大熵原理方法,用长期的地质资料反映大地震发生的信息,用短期的历史记载或仪器记录反映中、小地震发生的信息并把这些汇合起来。总之,修正的MEP法可以把来自不同渠道的本来不可比的、不同精确度的信息汇合到一个偏差最小的重现关系中,供地震危险性分析之用。
In this paper, the maximum entropy principle (MEP) is used to establish the recurrence relationship used in seismic hazard analysis, which can make the geological data, historical records and instrument records all converge in this recurrence relation. With the maximum entropy principle can get the smallest deviation of the reproduction relationship. This paper points out the difference between the traditional least square method (referred to as I.S method) and the MEP method, and explains it by several examples. This paper also proposes a modified method of maximum entropy principle, which reflects the information of major earthquakes with long-term geological data and records and reflects the information of medium and small earthquakes by using short-term historical records or instruments. In summary, the modified MEP method can combine incomparable and different accuracy information from different sources into a least-deviation recurrence relationship for seismic risk analysis.