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本文应用指数曲线数学模型对柘城县1951—1986年疟防措施效果进行了评价。表明我县采取以消灭传染源为主的综合性疟防措施的效果是好的,可使疟疾发病率持续下降,达到基本消灭疟疾的标准,并认为,为巩固成果,目前尚需坚持不懈地执行疟防措施,否则,发病率将可能回升。还提出指数曲线数学模型可作为评价疟防措施效果的一种简单方法,值得推广应用。
In this paper, exponential curve mathematical model was applied to evaluate the effect of malaria prevention measures in Yuncheng from 1951 to 1986. It shows that the county has taken good effect as a comprehensive malaria prevention and control program based on the eradication of sources of infection and the incidence of malaria has been continuously reduced to reach the standard of malaria elimination basically. He believes that in order to consolidate the achievements, we still need to persevere Implementation of malaria prevention measures, otherwise, the incidence will likely rise. It is also proposed that exponential curve mathematical model can be used as a simple method to evaluate the effect of malaria prevention measures, which is worth popularizing and applying.