房价波动与社会福利——基于内生化企业进入的研究

• 作 者: 雷文妮 龚六堂
• 机 构: 北京科技大学东凌经济管理学院,北京大学光华管理学院,
• 出 处: 金融研究
• 发表日期: 2016年08期
• 关键词: 房价波动 内生化 内生化企业进入 房地产价格波动 企业数目 社会福利 房地产价格 总产出 房地产商品 技术进步

本文建立了一个两部门DSGE模型,模型中引入房地产部门,分析了在企业自由进入情况下,房价波动如何影响新企业的进入以及社会福利。研究发现,外部冲击导致的房价波动通过改变企业进入成本,对企业的进入决策产生影响,进而改变商品的多样性和总产出,对社会福利造成影响。不同冲击对社会福利的影响大小与房价对企业进入成本的传递程度和房地产部门占经济中的比重直接相关,特别是当房价对企业进入成本的传递程度较大时,非房地产部门的技术进步冲击不但没有带来非房地产部门企业数目的增加,反而是加剧了非房地产部门的垄断程度,降低了社会福利。最后,本文通过1998到2010年中国35个大中城市面板数据的实证研究对理论模型中房价影响企业进入行为的机制进行了验证。

In this paper, a two-department DSGE model is set up. The real estate department is introduced into the model to analyze how the fluctuation of housing prices affects the entry of new enterprises and social welfare when the enterprises enter freely. The study finds that the volatility of housing prices caused by external shocks affects the social welfare by changing the entry cost of enterprises and influencing enterprises’ entry decisions, thereby changing the diversity and output of commodities. The impact of different impacts on social welfare and the extent to which house prices impact the cost of entry are directly related to the share of the real estate sector in the economy, especially when the price of housing passes on the cost of entry more strongly. The impact of technological advances on non-real estate sectors Instead of bringing about an increase in the number of non-real estate companies, it has exacerbated the monopoly of non-real estate sectors and reduced social welfare. Finally, the empirical research on the panel data of 35 large and medium-sized cities in China from 1998 to 2010 is carried out to verify the mechanism of the impact of house prices on the firm’s entry behavior in the theoretical model.