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根据协调发展度理论,构建秦皇岛市经济与环境协调发展评价体系,利用因子分析法测算经济综合水平指数和环境综合水平指数,通过协调发展度模型测算两个系统之间的协调发展度数值,采用GM(1,1)模型预测秦皇岛市经济与环境协调性变化趋势。结果显示,“十二五”期间秦皇岛市经济与环境的协调性将继续改善,到2014年将由中等协调发展类型转变为良好协调发展类型,但增幅放缓。
According to the theory of coordinated development degree, this paper constructs the evaluation system of harmonious development of economy and environment in Qinhuangdao, calculates the economic comprehensive level index and environmental comprehensive level index by factor analysis, and calculates the coordinated development degree between the two systems by using the coordinated development degree model. GM (1,1) Model to Predict the Coordination Trend of Economy and Environment in Qinhuangdao City. The results show that the coordination between economy and environment in Qinhuangdao will continue to improve during the “12th Five-Year Plan” period and will shift from a moderately coordinated type of development to a well-coordinated type of development by 2014, but the growth rate will slow down.