绸缪未雨时——今年汛前形势分析

• 作 者: 张学俭
• 出 处: 瞭望周刊
• 发表日期: 1987年20期
• 关键词: 太阳黑子 强对流天气 龙卷风 冰雹 旱涝 暖冬 形势分析 防洪标准 防洪能力 太阳黑子活动

历经了一个暖冬的中国大地,入春以来,冷暖空气活跃,降雨过程增多,冰雹、雷暴、龙卷风等强对流天气频繁。这种异常的气候,使人们对已进入盛期的“厄尔尼诺”现象和今年的太阳黑子低值年特别关注。据了解,“厄尔尼诺”现象与我国旱涝发生的联系虽然还不很清楚,但从1957年至1983年出现的7次“厄尔尼诺”现出的情况看,我国每一次都有大旱或

After a warm winter in the land of China, since the spring, warm and cold air is active, the rainfall process increased, hail, thunderstorms, tornadoes and other strong convective weather. This unusual climate gives special attention to El Niño, which has entered its peak, and to this year’s low sunspot year. It is understood that although the link between the “El Nino” phenomenon and the occurrence of drought and flood in our country is not yet clear, from the seven “El Nino” situations that emerged from 1957 to 1983, every time China experienced a severe drought or