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The continuous depreciation of the currencies of emerging market has brought about some uncertainty to China’s outward exports.
The 114th China Export Commodities Fair， also known as the Canton Fair， was started on October 15， 2013. Such an event is usually considered the“indicator of foreign trade of China”. The number of orders for exportoriented enterprises is going to increase. Many people worry that the drastically fluctuating exchange rate of many countries will directly affect the price of the orders.
“In September， the exports volume of our electronic toys and their price dropped compared with a year ago. The exports to Russia have the biggest drop which is closely related with the depreciation of Ruble. The lowered exchange rate of Ruble affected the imports of Russia and the importers in this country delivered fewer orders to us and reduced their offers，” says Gu Wu， general manager of Shenzhen-based Huakun Industrial Co.， Ltd.
The fluctuation in emerging markets
According to the data published by the General Customs of China， the imports and exports volume both had negative increase in July and August. The exports growth rate respectively hit 5.1% and 7.2% in these two months while the imports volume increased by 10.9% and 7%. The hi-tech products， electronic products and other commodities with certain technological contents all had good increase in the exports volume.
The forecast says that the export is likely to stand back onto its feet and develops quickly. The PMI data published by China United Logistics Group shows that the number of orders increased at a fast pace in August and HSBC’s data shows that the exports volume had its first increase in six months， meaning that the foreign demand turned better.
However， Gu Wu says that the unstable economy in the emerging markets， as well as the higher risk of exchange rate clouded the orders for exportation. His company has changed the structure of its products and the destinations for exportation. In the Canton Fair of this time， he mainly targeted Canada and the U.S.， hoping to increase the number of orders to these countries.
Yuan Mingren， consultant to the Association of Taiwanese Businessmen in Dongguan， says that the exports vol- ume of Taiwanese enterprises in Dongguan was very bad in this year compared with a year ago. Some enterprises even saw their orders drop 20% or 30%.
“In the first half of this year， the orders from the U.S. seemed to be increasing， but such a trend was ended after June. The enterprises targeting the Japanese market had to endure the fact that their profits were eaten by the depreciation of Japanese yen. They all had a bad time today. The European market did not see any boom this year and the orders from emerging markets are extremely unstable，” Yuan Mingren says. Mei Xinyu， a fellow at the International Trade and Economic Cooperation Institute of the Ministry of Commerce， says that China’s foreign trade generally took a mild and stable increasing trend in the first three quarters of 2013， but such a tendency is likely to be affected by the depression of the emerging markets in the fourth quarter.
“Brazil， India and Indonesia all have problems in their economic fundamentals， such as the fiscal deficit， inflation， asset bubbles and so on. They are likely to encounter new fluctuations in the fourth quarter. This will firstly affect the imports business of China before applying negative influence over China’s exports. The influence is expected to appear in the first half of 2014. In addition， such an influence is not shown in the volume， but in the price，” Mei says.“Enterprises and their products will be impacted， especially those resourcebased enterprises with low-class and low-value-added products are likely to face the fate of shutdown.”
Peng Wensheng， chief economist of China International Capital Corporation， used the phrase “blessing mixed with curse” to describe the current foreign trade situation of China. In his opinion， the bright outlook of developed economies is good for the betterment of China’s exports. But the fast increase of the labor cost， as well as the appreciation of RMB against the currencies of emerging markets， will cause China’s products to be less competitive in these countries. The betterment of the international economic situation might not have as big influence as it did in the past.
Ministry of Commerce of China also admits that the depression in emerging markets and the depreciation of their currencies have brought a lot of difficulties and stress for the exports and imports of China.
More difficult for price negotiation
The exports business is completely based on the orders from old clients in Europe and the U.S.， while the emerging market is not developed enough to provide potentia of profits. This is the general situation foreign trade enterprises have to endure at this moment.
A director of a hardware product manufacturer in Dongguan， Guangdong says that his company is undergoing the same situation as it did last year： most of its products are exported to the old clients in Japan， Europe and America. The profit margin does not go up either.
Zhu Zhongxing， a clock and watch manufacturer in Guangzhou， Guangdong says that the foreign trade is still relying on the old clients， who have begun to complain about the increasing price caused by the higher cost. His company’s exports volume and profit margin all went down this year. “In today’s society， the wage for a worker is 10 times as high as that of 10 year ago. The tax is also greatly increased，”he says when he was present in the Canton Fair. The clock and watch manufacturing company sitting opposite his company has already been closed even though the two attended the Canton Fair last year.
In spite of their competitive relationship， Zhu could not help but sigh at his neighbor’s fate. In order to avoid the same fate， his company is now planning transformation， turning the focus from international market into the domestic one. In addition， they are working hard to improve the artistic value and appreciativeness of their products.
A Jiangsu-based toy company’s owner present in the Canton Fair of this year says that the manufacturing cost increased by 15% thanks to the higher labor cost. It is hard to increase the price offered to old clients with the fear of losing them.
“We do not have too much confidence to transfer all the increase of cost to clients. We have to solve a part of it by ourselves and offset the rest by increasing the price of new products and developing new clients. 30%-40% of the exhibits we brought to this event are new products. Our hope of increasing the price lies with these products，” she says.
The 114th China Export Commodities Fair， also known as the Canton Fair， was started on October 15， 2013. Such an event is usually considered the“indicator of foreign trade of China”. The number of orders for exportoriented enterprises is going to increase. Many people worry that the drastically fluctuating exchange rate of many countries will directly affect the price of the orders.
“In September， the exports volume of our electronic toys and their price dropped compared with a year ago. The exports to Russia have the biggest drop which is closely related with the depreciation of Ruble. The lowered exchange rate of Ruble affected the imports of Russia and the importers in this country delivered fewer orders to us and reduced their offers，” says Gu Wu， general manager of Shenzhen-based Huakun Industrial Co.， Ltd.
The fluctuation in emerging markets
According to the data published by the General Customs of China， the imports and exports volume both had negative increase in July and August. The exports growth rate respectively hit 5.1% and 7.2% in these two months while the imports volume increased by 10.9% and 7%. The hi-tech products， electronic products and other commodities with certain technological contents all had good increase in the exports volume.
The forecast says that the export is likely to stand back onto its feet and develops quickly. The PMI data published by China United Logistics Group shows that the number of orders increased at a fast pace in August and HSBC’s data shows that the exports volume had its first increase in six months， meaning that the foreign demand turned better.
However， Gu Wu says that the unstable economy in the emerging markets， as well as the higher risk of exchange rate clouded the orders for exportation. His company has changed the structure of its products and the destinations for exportation. In the Canton Fair of this time， he mainly targeted Canada and the U.S.， hoping to increase the number of orders to these countries.
Yuan Mingren， consultant to the Association of Taiwanese Businessmen in Dongguan， says that the exports vol- ume of Taiwanese enterprises in Dongguan was very bad in this year compared with a year ago. Some enterprises even saw their orders drop 20% or 30%.
“In the first half of this year， the orders from the U.S. seemed to be increasing， but such a trend was ended after June. The enterprises targeting the Japanese market had to endure the fact that their profits were eaten by the depreciation of Japanese yen. They all had a bad time today. The European market did not see any boom this year and the orders from emerging markets are extremely unstable，” Yuan Mingren says. Mei Xinyu， a fellow at the International Trade and Economic Cooperation Institute of the Ministry of Commerce， says that China’s foreign trade generally took a mild and stable increasing trend in the first three quarters of 2013， but such a tendency is likely to be affected by the depression of the emerging markets in the fourth quarter.
“Brazil， India and Indonesia all have problems in their economic fundamentals， such as the fiscal deficit， inflation， asset bubbles and so on. They are likely to encounter new fluctuations in the fourth quarter. This will firstly affect the imports business of China before applying negative influence over China’s exports. The influence is expected to appear in the first half of 2014. In addition， such an influence is not shown in the volume， but in the price，” Mei says.“Enterprises and their products will be impacted， especially those resourcebased enterprises with low-class and low-value-added products are likely to face the fate of shutdown.”
Peng Wensheng， chief economist of China International Capital Corporation， used the phrase “blessing mixed with curse” to describe the current foreign trade situation of China. In his opinion， the bright outlook of developed economies is good for the betterment of China’s exports. But the fast increase of the labor cost， as well as the appreciation of RMB against the currencies of emerging markets， will cause China’s products to be less competitive in these countries. The betterment of the international economic situation might not have as big influence as it did in the past.
Ministry of Commerce of China also admits that the depression in emerging markets and the depreciation of their currencies have brought a lot of difficulties and stress for the exports and imports of China.
More difficult for price negotiation
The exports business is completely based on the orders from old clients in Europe and the U.S.， while the emerging market is not developed enough to provide potentia of profits. This is the general situation foreign trade enterprises have to endure at this moment.
A director of a hardware product manufacturer in Dongguan， Guangdong says that his company is undergoing the same situation as it did last year： most of its products are exported to the old clients in Japan， Europe and America. The profit margin does not go up either.
Zhu Zhongxing， a clock and watch manufacturer in Guangzhou， Guangdong says that the foreign trade is still relying on the old clients， who have begun to complain about the increasing price caused by the higher cost. His company’s exports volume and profit margin all went down this year. “In today’s society， the wage for a worker is 10 times as high as that of 10 year ago. The tax is also greatly increased，”he says when he was present in the Canton Fair. The clock and watch manufacturing company sitting opposite his company has already been closed even though the two attended the Canton Fair last year.
In spite of their competitive relationship， Zhu could not help but sigh at his neighbor’s fate. In order to avoid the same fate， his company is now planning transformation， turning the focus from international market into the domestic one. In addition， they are working hard to improve the artistic value and appreciativeness of their products.
A Jiangsu-based toy company’s owner present in the Canton Fair of this year says that the manufacturing cost increased by 15% thanks to the higher labor cost. It is hard to increase the price offered to old clients with the fear of losing them.
“We do not have too much confidence to transfer all the increase of cost to clients. We have to solve a part of it by ourselves and offset the rest by increasing the price of new products and developing new clients. 30%-40% of the exhibits we brought to this event are new products. Our hope of increasing the price lies with these products，” she says.