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在大地震的长期孕育过程中,孕震区的地震活动一般都要经历一个加速增强过程和一个异常平静过程,显示出地震活动时空不均匀性的加剧。基于这一事实,本文定量地定义了描述确定区域地震活动空间不均匀性的两项指标,即地震频次不均匀度F_d和地震能量不均匀度E_d。在阐明其理论依据的基础上,以我国近十几年内发生的8个6—7级地震为例,总结了F_d的异常时间T_f和E_d的异常时间T_e与未来地震强度的相关性。由其相关性出发,对1987年1月8日甘肃迭部发生的5.9级地震作了检验,检验效果尚好。一系列震例的总结和检验说明:运用指标E_d、F_d定量地探讨和预报某一确定区域地震发生的可能性是可行的。
During the long-term inoculation of a large earthquake, the seismic activity in the seismogenic zone generally undergoes an acceleration enhancement process and an anomalous calm process, which shows the aggravation of the temporal and spatial heterogeneity of seismic activity. Based on this fact, this paper quantitatively defines two indexes that describe the spatial heterogeneity of seismic activity in the region, namely, the seismic frequency nonuniformity F_d and the seismic energy nonuniformity E_d. On the basis of clarifying its theoretical basis, this paper summarizes the correlation between the anomalous time T_e of F_d and the anomalous time T_e of E_d and the future seismic intensity, taking the 8 magnitude 6-7 earthquakes that occurred in our country in recent ten years as an example. Based on its correlation, the M 5.9 earthquake occurred on January 8, 1987 in Gyeyang, Gyeongsangbuk-do was tested and the test result is still good. A series of earthquake cases are summarized and tested. It is feasible to quantitatively explore and predict the possibility of a certain regional earthquake with the indices E_d and F_d.