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在地震危险性分析和预测研究中,自20世纪80年代初开始引入数值模拟方法以来,随着科学技术的不断进步,经历了由二维到三维,由线性到非线性,由弹性到粘弹性,由单场到多场耦合分析的改进和发展。地震的孕育和发生是复杂的物理过程,地震前的异常表现更是各种各样,但地震前的应变能量积累是地震发生的必要条件。地震预测分析必须首先考虑应变能量积累的状态。由于地球内部的难入性,直接测量震源深处的应力应变是很困难的事情,利用数值分析方法,建立地壳上地幔三维动力学模型,模拟岩层变形过程,是当前研究地壳能量转移、积累最有效的方法之一。
In the research of seismic hazard analysis and prediction, since the introduction of numerical simulation method since the early 1980s, with the continuous advancement of science and technology, it has gone through from two-dimensional to three-dimensional, from linear to nonlinear, from elastic to viscoelastic , From single-field to multi-field coupling analysis of the improvement and development. The occurrence and occurrence of earthquakes is a complex physical process. Before the earthquake, the anomalous behavior is more varied, but the pre-earthquake strain energy accumulation is a necessary condition for earthquakes. Earthquake prediction analysis must first consider the state of strain energy accumulation. Because of the intractability of the Earth’s interior, it is very difficult to directly measure the stress and strain in the deep seismic source. Using numerical analysis, the three-dimensional dynamic model of the crust and upper mantle is established to simulate the deformation process of the crust, which is the current study on crustal energy transfer and accumulation One of the effective ways.