汕头市妈屿站台风潮预报方法

• 作 者: 何洪钜
• 机 构: 广东省水文总站
• 出 处: 海洋预报服务
• 发表日期: 1984年02期
• 关键词: 增水 妈屿 预报方案 预报精度 动力模式 东南海 陈金泉 预报方法 主导风向 不正规半日潮

为了提高预报精度,本文采用两种方法对妈屿站编制预报方案。第一种方法是经验法。这种方法首先定出导致本站增水的主导风向和增水区域,然后建立增水与本站风力的相关关系。第二种方法是应用陈金泉（厦门大学）提出的 “我国东南海岸台风潮逐时预报的动力模式”一文的原理编出了逐时台风潮预报方案。 用两种方法计算的预报值与实测值都很一致。使用两种方法对同一台风潮进行验算,有助于检验其预报合理性和预报值精度。

In order to improve the prediction accuracy, this paper adopts two methods to prepare the forecast scheme for MaYu station. The first method is the experience method. This method first sets out the dominant wind direction and water-boosting area that will lead to water increase in this site, and then establishes the correlation between increased water and wind power in this site. The second method is to apply the principle of “Dynamical Mode of Hourly Forecast of Typhoon Tide over China’s Southeast Coast” proposed by Chen Jinquan (Xiamen University) to compile a typhoon-based typhoon forecasting program. The predicted values ​​calculated by the two methods are in good agreement with the measured values. The use of two methods to check the same typhoon will help test its forecasting accuracy and prediction accuracy.